Bret Lawson
Analytics & Measurement Leader | Ecommerce & Omnichannel Retail
Causal measurement · Online-to-offline attribution · Forecasting · Analytics engineering · AI-native workflow
Summary
Analytics and measurement leader with 20+ years in ecommerce and omnichannel retail who finds out why the number moved, and proves it. Measurement that holds up under challenge: attribution that reaches store transactions, decompositions that sum exactly to the observed change, forecasts that finance plans against. Builds the platform underneath it (dbt mart, pipelines, 38 production dashboards) with an AI-native workflow that lets one senior person deliver what usually takes a team. Founder before enterprise leader.
Selected Results
- Decomposed a ~25% YoY organic-traffic decline into seven measured causes that sum exactly to the observed loss. Rank, the assumed culprit, explained under 1%, reframing an eight-figure revenue exposure
- Architected online-to-offline attribution for a ~2,300-store retailer: identity-stitched digital journeys to ERP transactions, ERP-calibrated, with measured stitch rates. Now the basis for channel budget allocation
- Built the finance forecast: gradient-boosted daily conversion and AOV models, holiday-tiered and walk-forward backtested; monthly, quarterly, and annual revenue forecasts within ±5%
- Traced a brand paid-search position loss to internal bid changes rather than competitor pressure using auction-insights and impression-share data, correcting the initial competitor-pressure read
- Built the ecommerce master mart (dbt on BigQuery): one governed daily table unifying ERP sales, web analytics, Google Ads, media, calls, and chat; the single source of truth for the executive deck, forecast, and 38 dashboards
- Delivered the platform around it solo: API ingestion pipelines, 20+ scheduled jobs, 38 dashboards, and an automated weekly executive deck; ~850 commits in nine months on an AI-native workflow
Core Strengths
Measurement science
attribution (multi-touch, tiered last-touch, online-to-offline), incrementality (difference-in-differences, event studies, Granger causality), LMDI decomposition, media mix modeling
Forecasting & planning
revenue and KPI forecasting, gradient-boosted models, fiscal-calendar holiday alignment, spend-scenario and sensitivity analysis, walk-forward backtesting
Analytics engineering & delivery
dbt semantic layer, BigQuery/GCP, API ingestion, scheduled pipelines, data-quality gates, metric definitions; executive decks and dashboards where every number is verifiable
AI-native workflow
Claude Code as the daily analytical workflow in the IDE, MCP data connectors (Conductor, SimilarWeb, Contentsquare); AI-assisted modeling, SQL, and documentation under human review (68% faster in a 12-query study)
Technologies
Data
BigQuery, GCP, dbt, SQL, Python (pandas, scikit-learn, XGBoost), R, HTML/CSS/JS, PowerShell, Git
Analytics
Adobe CJA, Contentsquare, Google Analytics, Tealium, Search Console, Conductor, SimilarWeb
Marketing
Google Ads (API), Adobe Advertising, Campaign Manager, Datorama, Optimizely, Adobe Target
BI & AI
Looker Studio, Tableau, Streamlit, R Shiny, Netlify · Claude Code, MCP connectors, VS Code
Professional Experience
Senior Manager, Digital Analytics
May 2020 – Present
Mattress Firm | Houston, TX
Ecommerce analytics owner for a ~2,300-store omnichannel retailer. Led a team of 7 analysts and developers.
Measurement & causal analysis
- Decomposed a ~25% organic-traffic decline into named causes with LMDI decomposition, sessions as ground truth and third-party data directional; refuted the rank narrative and withdrew a confounded DiD
- Tested paid-to-organic spillover across 16 channels with first-difference and partial correlation, bootstrap intervals, and Granger causality to separate incremental from cannibalized organic traffic
- Sized an $18.2M page-speed revenue opportunity and $2.1M conversion-friction loss to set tech priorities
Attribution & metric governance
- Architected online-to-offline attribution (cross-device visitor stitching, 30-day lookback, tiered last-touch across 16 channels, ERP-calibrated), the source of truth for channel ROAS alongside media mix modeling
- Defined the canonical KPI catalog (sales, shopping conversion, AOV, contribution dollars, stitch rate, attribution windows) so every dashboard, deck, and ad-hoc answer reconciles to the same definitions
Forecasting & planning
- Built the finance forecast orchestrator (gradient-boosted daily conversion and AOV models, holiday-tiered to the fiscal calendar, walk-forward backtested) that finance and the weekly executive deck run on
- Built a CPC-based paid-search traffic engine and spend-scenario models for annual budget planning
Platform & automation
- Modeled the mart in dbt with field definitions, an ERD, tests, and quality monitoring; engineered API ingestion (Google Ads, Contentsquare, Conductor, SimilarWeb) and 20+ scheduled jobs for pulls, refreshes, and alerts
- Wrote the dashboard house standard (metric definitions, data-integrity gates, formatting) and shipped 38 dashboards plus the automated weekly executive deck against it, so numbers agree across every surface
Director of Customer Engagement & Digital Analytics
May 2016 – April 2020
Stage Stores | Houston, TX · Promoted April 2019 · Digital Analytics Manager 2016–2019 · Omni-Channel Associate of the Year 2018
- Led omnichannel analytics for an 800+ store retailer; built cross-channel attribution integrating online and offline touchpoints to guide budget allocation and reduce customer acquisition cost
- Deployed Adobe Advertising DSP analytics with geospatial targeting, a 30%+ campaign-efficiency gain
- Segmented ecommerce performance by distance-to-store bands and connected web analytics to store foot traffic for executive omnichannel KPIs; share-of-wallet modeling to tune regional spend
Digital Project Lead
Dec 2013 – Mar 2016
Hisco, Inc. | Houston, TX
- Led a 400,000+ SKU ecommerce platform launch in 14 months to top-of-industry conversion benchmarks
- Managed a 20+ person cross-functional team; integrated catalog, inventory, and payment systems
Founder & Owner
Jan 2003 – Sep 2013
VectorTec | Spring, TX
- Grew a specialty ecommerce retailer to $2M+ revenue and #3 nationally in its sector
- Built fully automated invoicing, fulfillment, and reporting; applied analytics to pricing and inventory
Education & Certifications
- B.S., Life Sciences, Texas A&M University
- Business Science University: Data Science for Business (101P), Python for Data Science Automation (101P-A)